According to the ‘Global Tipping Points Report’ – hailed as the most comprehensive assessment of tipping points ever conducted – the world has reached a pivotal moment, as both threats from Earth system tipping points and progress towards positive tipping points accelerate.

The speed of fossil fuel phase-out and growth of zero-carbon solutions will now determine the future of billions of people, asserts the report, which underlines that current global governance is inadequate for the scale of the challenge. Co-ordinated action to trigger positive tipping points – one of six key recommendations set out – is needed to change course fast.

A tipping point occurs when a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation, and the effects can be positive or negative. Based on an assessment of 26 negative Earth system tipping points, the report concludes “business as usual” is no longer possible.

With global warming now on course to breach 1.5°C, at least five Earth system tipping points are likely to be triggered, including the collapse of major ice sheets and widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs. As Earth system tipping points multiply, there is a risk, too, of catastrophic, global-scale loss of capacity to grow staple crops. 

This impending climate and ecological crisis will see societies overwhelmed, as the natural world comes apart, the report claims, but emergency global action can still harness positive tipping points and steer the world towards a sustainable future. Laying out a blueprint for urgent change, the report was produced by an international team of more than 200 researchers, co-ordinated by the University of Exeter, in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund.

Its key message is that bold, co-ordinated policies could trigger positive tipping points across multiple sectors, including energy, transport and food. This would save millions of lives, billions of people from hardship, trillions of dollars in climate-related damage, and begin restoring the natural world.

“Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity,” said Professor Tim Lenton, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability, and financial collapse.

“But tipping points also offer our best hope: we need to prioritise and trigger positive tipping points in our societies and economies. This is already happening in areas ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles to social movements and plant-based diets. Now is the moment to unleash a cascade of positive tipping points to ensure a safe, just and sustainable future for humanity.”

The report makes six key recommendations:

• phase out fossil fuels and land-use emissions now, stopping them well before 2050;
• strengthen adaptation and “loss and damage” governance, recognising inequality between and within nations;
• include tipping points in the Global Stocktake (the world’s climate inventory) and Nationally Determined Contributions (each country’s efforts to tackle climate change);
• co-ordinate policy efforts to trigger positive tipping points;
• convene an urgent global summit on tipping points; and
• deepen knowledge of tipping points – with the research team supporting calls for an IPCC Special Report on this area.

Calling for reinforcements

Commenting on the report’s findings, Dr Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, said: “Some Earth system tipping points are now likely to be triggered, causing severe and disproportionate impacts within and between nations. This provides an urgent impetus to strengthen adaptation and loss and damage governance, adjusting existing frameworks and increasing resources to account for tipping point threats.

“Averting this crisis – and doing so equitably – must be the core goal of COP28 and ongoing global co-operation. Good global governance can make this happen, especially by triggering positive tipping points.”

Dr Steve Smith, at the University of Exeter, said: “Just as with Earth system tipping points, positive tipping points can combine to reinforce and accelerate each other. For example, as we cross the tipping point that sees electric vehicles become the dominant form of road transport, battery technology continues to get better and cheaper. This could trigger another positive tipping point, in the use of batteries for storing renewable energy, reinforcing another in the use of heat pumps in our homes, and so on.”

He added: “Learning from these examples, we must switch our focus from incremental change to transformative action – tipping the odds in our favour.”

Kelly Levin, chief of science, data and systems change for the Bezos Earth Fund, said: “The path we choose now will determine the future of humanity, and this extraordinary report sets out the Earth system tipping points we need to prevent, the governance we need to urgently implement, and critically, the positive tipping points we need to trigger to transform our society and world.

“Solving the climate and nature crises will require major transitions across most multiple sectors – from shifting diets to restoring forests to phasing out the internal combustion engine. Given the required scale of action, we must target the most beneficial positive tipping points so that change takes off in a way that is unstoppable.”

Parts of the ‘Global Tipping Points Report’ will be published in a special issue of the journal Earth System Dynamics.