That’s the judgement of major research co-authored by more than 60 natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission – an international, interdisciplinary science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.

Companies and cities are also identified as having huge potential to make a difference in this regard, helped by the fact they are more nimble and agile than states and nations.

The report is led by Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Prof. Xuemei Bai, and Prof. Diana Liverman, and it builds on the ‘Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries’, published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed.

This new paper identifies the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for – and sets out the paths to reach and stay in this Space.

The Earth System Boundaries can be seen as the “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, within which the Earth systems can remain stable and resilient, and people can be safe from harm. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing what the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty.

According to the Earth Commission, this is the first time scientists have quantified safety (a stable planet) and justice (people being protected from harm) in the same units – demonstrating that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people.

The “Safe and Just Space” is shrinking

In this new work, the researchers made projections ahead to 2050 and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate, they found that, if significant changes aren’t made now, by 2050 there will be no Safe and Just Space left. That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary.

They also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

The research also looked at where on the planet the Safe and Just boundaries have been breached, overlaying this with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change that impacts the health of people and ecosystems – but everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk.

Urgent transformations required

The paper calls for change in three areas:

• Firstly, a well co-ordinated, intentional effort between policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities can push for changes to how we run the economy and find new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality while reducing pressure on nature and climate.
• Secondly, fundamental to the transformation is more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society – including addressing the excess consumption of some communities, which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most.
• Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies is essential to help humans use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all.

“Any efforts to protect the planet must take into account the needs of the millions of people that don’t even have access to the basics right now,” said Diana Liverman, Regents Professor of Geography, Development and Environment at the University of Arizona, member of the Earth Commission, and co-lead of its transformations working group until 2023. “Now decision makers need to implement policies and activities that can address inequality while reducing pressure on nature and climate.”

“We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth,” said Joyeeta Gupta, former co-chair of the Earth Commission, and professor of environment and development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam. “Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don’t have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems that underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.”

Global boundaries can be downscaled

For global boundaries to make a difference, they need to be downscaled to allow countries, cities, companies and citizens to take action in line with them. The Commission says the Earth System Boundaries are designed to be suitable for downscaling and the Safe and Just Space provides budgets that can be allocated to local actors. The Commission reviewed how the boundaries can be downscaled to be useful, in particular, for companies and cities, and how their ‘fair shares’ of resources and responsibilities can be identified. By, for instance, adopting science-based targets, they can become better stewards of Earth’s natural resources, says the research.

Xuemei Bai, member of the Earth Commission, and Distinguished Professor at Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, said: “Companies and cities have a huge potential to make a difference, especially if they work towards the same goal – ensuring the planet can provide for everyone long term. They’re more nimble and flexible than states, and can reduce their pressure on the planet by setting science-based targets in line with our findings.”

Commenting on the full research, Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and professor in Earth system science at the University of Potsdam, said: “This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. It looks at the risk for further decline of the Earth system, the harm communities are experiencing as a result, but also seeks to identify how resources need to be fairly distributed. Communities, poor and rich, across the world are already vulnerable and will become more exposed – but we have a window to act now and change course.”

Wendy Broadgate, executive director for the Earth Commission and Global Hub director at Future Earth, added: “Addressing justice must be at the heart of our response to the planetary crisis. We need to run our economies and societies differently to live within the Safe and Just Space. The Earth Commission’s work highlights living within the safe boundaries of the planet, and incorporating justice, is not possible without addressing inequalities and ensuring everyone has the essential resources for a dignified life.”